In Advance of the 82nd Academy Awards

Yes, it's that time of year again. It's hard to tell whether or not anyone has much enthusiasm for the Oscars anymore. Indeed, much of the focus this time round seems to be on the fact that the films that have garnered the most nominations - Avatar and The Hurt Locker respectively - were directed by James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow, who were once married to one another. It's a reasonable enough angle to hang the ceremony off of, but in truth it betrays a general lack of interest in the event itself. Which is fair enough, really, as even the most cursory trawl through the main categories reveals very little to get excited about, with the most obvious candidates generally garnering their expected nominations, as we're about to see:

Best Picture

Given that the category has been expanded to include ten films, you really would have hoped for a wildcard of some kind to spring up - The White Ribbon or A Prophet, for example, moving up from the Best Foreign Language Film category into the supposed big leagues. That hasn't really happened, though. Admittedly, Up manages to make the shortlist, but has no chance of winning - it'll surely take home the Best Animated Feature, but isn't a serious candidate for the big award. Neither is District 9, a somewhat baffling inclusion. The Blind Side hasn't been released in this country yet, which makes any kind of assessment difficult. By all appearances it can be easily filed in the 'American sports drama' bracket, but it is based on a critically acclaimed true life story, so it could be decent. For practical purposes, I'm ruling it out of the running. Ditto An Education, simply because I find it hard to believe that an American audience will be interested enough in what is a very British film for it to take home the big prize. A Serious Man doesn't quite match the heights of multiple Oscar winner No Country For Old Men, and so it seems a reasonably safe bet that it will end up missing out here.

Of the five films that leaves, it becomes much harder to pick one out as the winner. Inglourious Basterds was very much a return to form for Quentin Tarantino, but it doesn't seem likely that a film that plays Adolf Hitler for laughs will win Best Picture. Precious is a film with much to commend it for, but it also has a number of failings that mean it shouldn't win here. Up In The Air might actually have a chance. After all, it's the most extensively nominated film in the main categories, which suggests that the Academy are keen on it. Avatar is now the highest-grossing film ever, but it could hardly be described as any kind of critical success, although that in itself isn't reason to rule it out of the running, and it has to be considered one of the front-runners. Yet I'm taking the safe option, and backing The Hurt Locker to emulate the success it had at the BAFTAs. I imagine the recent controversy surrounding the film has come too late in the day to affect it negatively, and it probably is the only truly standout option.

Best Director

Not a massively straightforward category. For all his detractors, Quentin Tarantino has had as much of an impact on American cinema as anyone these past twenty years, and that deserves greater acknowledgment than a single Best Original Screenplay award. I can't see him winning in that category this year, and in truth, I can't see him winning Best Director either. But he wouldn't make for a terrible choice. As previously mentioned, Precious is a fantastic film, but it is not one without its failings, and I think some of them can be traced to Lee Daniels's inexperience as a director. James Cameron won a Best Director award for Titanic, and I'd like to believe that Avatar is far too similar a film (on a structural level, they're nearly identical) to earn him a second one. Kathryn Bigelow is again the safe option, so I'm backing her, although Up In The Air is surely going to take home at least one of the big awards, and considering Jason Reitman has been nominated for the ho-hum Juno in the past, I think there's a genuine chance of him winning here.

Best Actor

I'm very much of the belief that George Clooney has to win one of these awards one day - he is a very talented individual, and it's obvious that he's beloved by the Academy. This could definitely be his year. Surprisingly for a Clint Eastwood film, Invictus has been largely ignored, so I wouldn't back Morgan Freeman. I don't see Colin Firth winning, either. Jeremy Renner has a chance - he's won more than a few (comparatively minor) awards for his role in The Hurt Locker, as does Jeff Bridges (mostly in a Martin Scorsese "he's surely done enough over the span of his career to deserve one of these things for something" sense). I'm going for Clooney, though.

Best Actress

Give it to Gabourey Sidibe! Helen Mirren really doesn't need any more recognition at this point, nor does Meryl Streep - fine actresses both, their legacies are secure. And for Sandra Bullock, the nomination itself should be sufficient to redeem someone who had previously been seen as something of a joke. That leaves Sidibe and Carey Mulligan, and as far as portrayals of adolescence are concerned, Mulligan's just isn't that interesting, and her performance not that impressive. I've expressed my opinion that Precious is a flawed film, but those flaws do not extend to the performance of Sidibe, which is nothing short of remarkable, and will hopefully earn her this award.

Best Supporting Actor

One of the strongest fields. I have precisely zero interest in watching The Lovely Bones, which has been made to look entirely mundane by its own advertising campaign (and, indeed, by its reviews), so I can't comment on Stanley Tucci's performance. Matt Damon - for all my belief that he's spreading himself a little thin just lately - is a fine actor, but I don't see him winning here. Ditto Woody Harrelson - they've both been nominated for the Best Actor award in the past, without success, and I expect them to go home disappointed tonight. Christoph Waltz is the best thing about Inglourious Basterds, and time was I'd have been rooting for him to win. But Christopher Plummer probably deserves it. Not only has he had a long career, filled with fine performances, but aside from The Last Station, he was excellent in Up (as the voice of the villain of the piece, Charles F. Muntz) and The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus. Still, I expect Waltz to win here.

Best Supporting Actress

Rob Marshall's previous film Chicago swept up at the 2002 Oscars. His latest effort, Nine, has been a catastrophic failure. Critics hated it, and it has been almost entirely ignored by the Academy. That Penelope Cruz is nominated here is testament to her talent, and her status as another of the Academy's most beloved performers. Yet having won the same award last year, it'd be a surprise to see her take it away again, especially for a role in a universally panned film. Anna Kendrick and Vera Famiga are both nominated for Up In The Air, and could end up splitting the vote. Maggie Gyllenhaal may have a chance, then, but Mo'Nique has so far swept up at the other award shows - taking home the BAFTA, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild versions of this award - and it seems ridiculous not to back her to do the same here.